May 24, 2024
Ethereum price rally spot ETH ETFs

A crypto analyst, Eric, believes Ethereum (ETH) could spike to $20,000 in the upcoming bull run. The analyst said the potential launch of spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States will propel this upswing.

Ethereum To $20,000 Possible

In a post on X, Eric cited Ethereum’s historical tendency to mirror Bitcoin (BTC), albeit with a one-cycle lag. In the previous bull market, the analyst noted that Bitcoin surged 22-fold from $3,100 to $69,000. Therefore, if Ethereum follows a similar trajectory, reaching $20,000 would be a realistic possibility.

Ethereum price trending upward on the daily chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Binance, TradingView
Ethereum price trending upward on the daily chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Binance, TradingView

As the analyst noted, Ethereum’s recent bear market bottom of $880 in 2022, if extrapolated using the 22x growth rate seen in BTC, places the coin at $19,360. However, the analyst believes Ethereum might surpass expectations, making $20,000 a base and a psychological round number to monitor closely. 

Supporting this forecast is the possible approval of a spot Ethereum ETFs. Like the spot Bitcoin ETF, this authorization will likely attract institutional investors and significantly boost Ethereum prices and liquidity. Institutional investors can gain exposure to Ethereum through these complex derivative products without the complexities of directly trading or storing the coin.

While the optimism remains, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will likely follow the same path it took before approving the first spot of Bitcoin ETFs in January. For context, the strict agency failed to approve any spot Bitcoin ETF for over ten years, citing market manipulation risks and the absence of proper monitoring tools.

Will The US SEC Approve A Spot Ethereum ETF?

However, in a recent statement by The Block, Standard Chartered, a global bank, said the US SEC will likely approve Ethereum ETF’s first spot in May 2023. By then, the bank added, ETH prices will be trading at around $4,000, propelled by general market optimism. 

The bank notes that the failure of the agency to classify ETH as a security further adds weight to this expectation. At the same time, Grayscale Investments, which is issuing Grayscale Ethereum Trusts (ETHE), wants to convert this product into an ETF. Each share traded at around $20 as of January 30.

ETHE share price | Source: Grayscale
ETHE share price | Source: Grayscale

Earlier, Grayscale won against the US SEC’s arguments, wishing to prevent the conversion of their Bitcoin Trust into an ETF. This win set the ball rolling for the eventual approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. 

Additionally, the fact that Ethereum Futures ETFs were recently approved and listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is a net positive, paving the way for a potential listing in May 2024. 

Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView

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